Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C6 0xc6a9…769e sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,746 (-9%) realized −$1,747 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%65W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$361
14 days−$3
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,599
other 2% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.4% -60.5% 29% 29% -52.4%
≤30d 29 -19.9% -27.6% 48% 48% -25.7%
≤90d 81 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 51% -18.1%
all 133 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 48% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -18.3%
10% -27.0% 48% -26.1%
15% -34.0% 42% -33.2%
20% -40.5% 30% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$129 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$1,747
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses65 / 68
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage165d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 69¢ 69¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $115 +$85 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $97 −$96 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $93 +$107 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $111 +$89 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $149 +$75 +50%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $133 −$132 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $119 +$81 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $117 −$117 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $192 −$189 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $75 −$74 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $119 +$81 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $145 +$55 +38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $145 +$55 +38%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $83 −$82 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $113 +$87 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $103 −$3 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $138 +$60 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $139 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $75 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $115 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $97 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $93 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 9d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $111 12d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $149 12d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $133 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $135 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 19d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $119 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $192 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 22d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $111 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $139 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.98 · official $139.00 (match) · 210 history records