Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6b0…e71e economics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$335 (-9%) realized +$795 · open −$1,130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$1,026
world 26% +$795
other 5% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +79.5% +62.4% 100% 100% +62.4%
all 1 +79.5% +62.4% 100% 100% +62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.4% 100% +62.4%
10% +46.9% 100% +46.9%
15% +32.7% 100% +32.7%
20% +19.7% 100% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$795 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,569
Realized+$795
Unrealized−$1,130
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage57d
Avg bet$956
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,200 $888 −$312 (-26%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,300 $585 −$715 (-55%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $200 $96 −$104 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 01 $999 +$795 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,569.34 · official $1,569.34 (match) · 11 history records