Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6b1…78fd sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303,466 (+16%) realized +$300,552 · open +$2,914
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%90W / 163L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,828per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$13,821est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$8,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$172,631
other 41% +$43,265
politics 0% −$1,453
world 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -88.9% -89.9% 5% 5% -57.1%
≤30d 94 -48.4% -53.3% 22% 22% -22.3%
≤90d 227 -15.4% -23.4% 37% 37% -10.7%
all 253 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 36% -13.1%
10% -32.8% 34% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -39.3% 32% -29.0%
20% -45.3% 29% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$12,212) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,546 vs −$7,474 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$8,493
Realized+$300,552
Unrealized+$2,914
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses90 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$13,821
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 199
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$9,828
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 68¢ $5,579 $8,493 +$2,914 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 19 $10,660 −$10,660 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-8.5) Jun 19 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $12,917 −$12,917 -100%
Sharks vs. Canadiens Jun 19 $6,572 −$6,572 -100%
Spread: Heat (-15.5) Jun 19 $3,624 −$3,624 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings: O/U 235.5 Jun 19 $918 −$918 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 19 $1,475 −$1,485 -101%
Senators vs. Canucks Jun 19 $3,790 −$3,790 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 19 $5,923 −$5,923 -100%
Senators vs. Flames Jun 19 $8,944 −$8,944 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Jun 19 $9,120 −$9,120 -100%
First Round Pool D: Netherlands vs. Israel Jun 19 $6,572 −$6,572 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 19 $13,305 −$13,305 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Jun 19 $556 −$556 -100%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Jun 19 $6,909 −$6,909 -100%
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Jun 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 19 $14,978 −$14,978 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $2,677 −$2,677 -100%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Tianjin Pioneers Jun 19 $1,561 −$1,561 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-11? Jun 19 $2,246 −$2,246 -100%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 19 $2,716 −$2,716 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12? Jun 19 $14,460 −$14,460 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06? Jun 19 $4,836 −$4,836 -100%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Ohio Bobcats Jun 19 $11,364 −$11,364 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $3,945 −$3,945 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 19 $3,919 −$3,919 -100%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $685 −$685 -100%
Utah vs. Flyers Jun 19 $4,017 −$4,017 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-03-08? Jun 19 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-10.5) Jun 19 $1,693 −$1,693 -100%
AHL: San Jose Barracuda vs. Milwaukee Admirals Jun 19 $3,170 −$3,170 -100%
Will SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Jun 19 $9,511 −$9,511 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 19 $9,020 −$9,020 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Baez Jun 19 $480 −$480 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-03? Jun 19 $1,589 −$1,589 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $14,690 −$14,690 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $20,565 −$20,565 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 19 $6,767 −$6,767 -100%
Spread: Kings (-2.5) Jun 19 $3,901 −$3,901 -100%
Spread: Wild (-1.5) Jun 19 $15,508 −$15,508 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-02? Jun 19 $6,042 −$6,042 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-15? Jun 19 $2,992 −$2,992 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Jun 19 $4,777 −$4,777 -100%
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 152.5 Jun 19 $3,885 −$3,885 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Jun 19 $2,122 −$2,122 -100%
First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Nicaragua Jun 19 $4,879 −$4,879 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 19 $1,718 −$1,718 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $5,671 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $2,105 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1,762 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $310 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $21 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $7 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $37 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $117 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $29 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $59 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $2 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $7 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $36 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $176 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $92 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,492.63 · official $8,492.63 (match) · 3500 history records