Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6b5…28a9 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4
other 25% $0
politics 6% +$5
tech 4% $0
finance 3% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 15% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 13 -6.6% -15.5% 15% 8% -8.6%
all 50 +8.3% -2.0% 38% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 8% -8.3%
10% -11.4% 2% -17.0%
15% -19.9% 2% -25.0%
20% -27.8% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage456d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $34 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $27 +$5 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +550%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 03 $1 $0 -32%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 28 $1 $0 -30%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 25 $8 $0 -6%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $34 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $34 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $38 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $29 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $32 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $27 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $29 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $27 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $13 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $17 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $30 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.97 · official $37.18 (match) · 148 history records