Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6b9…de6d sports 610 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 319d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,084 (-8%) realized −$11,084 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%231W / 372L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$185
14 days−$1,300
30 days−$7,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$4,472
culture 26% −$7,545
other 26% +$1,820
politics 8% +$4,775
world 4% −$4,059
crypto 1% −$893
tech 0% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.0% -8.7% 43% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 169 -27.1% -34.1% 30% 30% -33.2%
≤90d 333 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 39% -15.8%
all 603 -2.9% -12.1% 38% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 38% -16.5%
10% -20.5% 37% -24.5%
15% -28.2% 36% -31.8%
20% -35.2% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$193 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$11,084
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses231 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions7
Markets (closed)603 / 610
History coverage320d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 55¢ 54¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 40¢ 40¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $41 $56 +$15 (+36%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $142 +$100 +70%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $61 +$82 +134%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $132 +$82 +62%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $102 +$218 +214%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $163 −$160 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $172 −$170 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $254 +$315 +124%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $178 −$175 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $303 −$299 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $243 −$240 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $163 −$160 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $209 +$331 +158%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 +$279 +183%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 25 $33 +$66 +203%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $122 −$120 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $61 +$89 +146%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $198 +$203 +102%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $127 −$125 -98%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $157 +$170 +108%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $81 +$82 +101%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 +$88 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 22 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $178 −$175 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $198 −$195 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $152 +$100 +66%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$66 +216%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $122 +$241 +197%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $188 +$228 +121%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $107 −$105 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $563 −$455 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $172 +$102 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $147 +$122 +83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $193 +$249 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $128 −$34 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 40¢ $76 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $56 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 55¢ $127 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $76 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $163 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $172 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $132 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $142 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $61 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $87 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $183 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $61 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 14¢ $128 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $137 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $72 4d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL No 99¢ $99 4d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $89 4d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $192 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $25 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 35¢ $127 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $209 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $122 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $81 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $61 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.69 · official $405.69 (match) · 3500 history records