Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6be…43c9 crypto 2228 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,255 (+37%) realized +$6,254 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%1057W / 958L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,689
sports 3% −$110
other 2% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 46% -37.6%
≤30d 1677 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 53% -20.2%
≤90d 2015 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 52% -20.1%
all 2015 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 52% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 52% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 52% -27.7%
15% -24.5% 51% -34.7%
20% -31.9% 50% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6,254
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses1057 / 958
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2015 / 2228
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 11PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 9PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 16-22? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 6PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 12PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $1.33 (match) · 3500 history records