Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6bf…6d30 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$79
sports 34% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 33 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 33 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
all 34 -18.4% -26.1% 35% 35% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 35% -13.3%
10% -33.2% 29% -21.6%
15% -39.7% 26% -29.2%
20% -45.6% 15% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage145d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$53 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $54 +$22 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$47 -67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$17 -76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$100 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$81 -62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $72 +$30 +42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $77 +$20 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $94 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $78 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $18 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $5 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $28 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $22 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $7 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $15 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $71 39h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 44h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.27 · official $53.27 (match) · 66 history records