Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6c0…d0cb crypto 477 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%285W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$352
14 days−$253
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$221
tech 0% −$1
other 0% −$22
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -1.8% -11.2% 63% 62% -12.6%
≤30d 476 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 59% -11.5%
≤90d 476 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 59% -11.5%
all 476 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 59% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 59% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 55% -19.9%
15% -28.9% 49% -27.7%
20% -35.9% 32% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses285 / 191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)476 / 477
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 72¢ 74¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$27 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $96 +$32 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$23 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $73 +$43 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$95 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $82 +$46 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$32 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$27 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$43 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$27 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$9 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$10 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$12 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $55 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $66 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $63 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $34 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $63 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $33 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.22 · official $93.91 · 898 history records