Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C6 0xc6c0…2713 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized −$81 · open +$150
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$523
7 days−$523
14 days−$574
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$427
other 37% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -72.4%
≤30d 17 +13.1% +2.4% 24% 24% -7.3%
≤90d 23 +17.6% +6.4% 30% 30% +1.5%
all 23 +17.6% +6.4% 30% 30% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 30% +1.5%
10% -3.7% 30% -8.2%
15% -13.0% 30% -17.1%
20% -21.6% 30% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$76 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,480
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage41d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 62¢ 67¢ $629 $686 +$56 (+9%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 49¢ 57¢ $501 $591 +$90 (+18%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $489 −$489 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $261 −$34 -13%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $299 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $316 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $98 −$28 -29%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $154 −$23 -15%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $195 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $264 +$227 +86%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $258 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $304 +$222 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $67 +$95 +141%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $48 +$88 +183%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 26 $52 −$4 -7%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 26 $51 $0 +0%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 23 $97 +$126 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $90 −$10 -11%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5) May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 19 $77 +$73 +95%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $45 +$32 +70%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 62¢ $639 53m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY $53 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 58¢ $254 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $254 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY $228 20h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL No 32¢ $227 20h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 35¢ $261 20h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $299 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Cur BUY $206 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 48¢ $76 9d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 76¢ $240 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $98 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $96 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $248 9d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes $69 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 11¢ $131 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 25¢ $64 17d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 42¢ $195 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $489 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $264 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 19¢ $258 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 SELL Under 100¢ $526 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 SELL Under 100¢ $162 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 41¢ $67 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 SELL Over 98¢ $135 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.93 · official $1,754.16 · 49 history records