Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc6c3…61f0 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$3
sports 23% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 67% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 67% -9.4%
≤90d 3 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 67% -9.4%
all 3 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 67% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 67% -9.4%
10% -25.3% 33% -18.1%
15% -32.5% 33% -26.0%
20% -39.2% 33% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$487 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$588
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 65¢ 66¢ $294 $296 +$2 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $294 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $960 +$128 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $598 +$362 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $498 −$487 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 65¢ $300 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $300 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 87¢ $960 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $598 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $98 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $300 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.94 · official $587.94 (match) · 10 history records