Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc6c5…6f9c other 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,040 (+19%) realized +$10,031 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%70W / 204L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,011
7 days+$3,142
14 days+$3,335
30 days+$9,517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$5,662
finance 28% +$3,525
other 23% −$4,015
sports 16% −$82
economics 1% +$447
crypto 1% −$2
politics 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +76.2% +59.4% 56% 56% +98.7%
≤30d 62 +61.8% +46.4% 32% 32% +47.5%
≤90d 258 -10.5% -19.0% 25% 24% +0.1%
all 274 -9.3% -18.0% 26% 24% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 24% +1.7%
10% -25.8% 22% -8.0%
15% -33.0% 20% -16.9%
20% -39.6% 18% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$95 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$2,878
Realized+$10,031
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses70 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions14
Markets (closed)274 / 288
History coverage111d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1,500 $1,118 −$382 (-25%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 26¢ $146 $698 +$551 (+377%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 23¢ 22¢ $170 $166 −$4 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $200 $66 −$134 (-67%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Over $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 24¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Over $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$265 +130%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $204 +$366 +180%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $226 −$220 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $235 +$684 +291%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 +$106 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$75 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $306 +$694 +226%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $204 +$536 +262%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $990 +$1,250 +126%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $515 −$275 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $30 +$200 +667%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $200 +$798 +399%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 01 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $160 −$160 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $11 −$10 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 28 $399 −$392 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $102 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $254 +$175 +69%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $135 −$90 -66%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 26 $163 +$32 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 25 $6,256 +$1,594 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $20 +$175 +875%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $160 +$2,190 +1369%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $210 +$1,869 +890%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $205 +$2,933 +1431%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over $21 15m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 15m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $51 18m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $51 18m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $153 26m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $123 27m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $230 37m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $74 39m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $165 40m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $205 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $270 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $21 38h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $51 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $919 47h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $87 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $62 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 2d
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $41 2d
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana $134 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $133 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $306 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $61 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,878.37 · official $2,878.42 (match) · 911 history records