Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6c8…140e crypto 164 markets active 4h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%76W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$12
other 20% −$1
sports 3% +$3
world 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -15.4%
≤30d 139 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -15.4%
≤90d 139 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -15.4%
all 139 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 53% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 53% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 47% -23.5%
15% -30.4% 40% -30.9%
20% -37.3% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses76 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)139 / 164
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Starmer say "Poverty" during the next PMQ? No 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 70¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $1 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $1 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.76 · official $23.76 (match) · 285 history records