Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc6c8…a6cd other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$12 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$33
sports 32% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.1% -16.9% 67% 67% -27.2%
≤30d 4 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -30.0%
≤90d 9 +4.9% -5.0% 67% 67% -10.0%
all 9 +4.9% -5.0% 67% 67% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 67% -10.0%
10% -14.1% 44% -18.6%
15% -22.4% 33% -26.5%
20% -30.0% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$43 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage75d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 08 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 +$34 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 52d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin SELL Yes 100¢ $87 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin BUY Yes 86¢ $75 71d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 71d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 97¢ $84 72d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.70 · official $83.70 (match) · 20 history records