Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc6cc…6f75 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,630 (+31%) realized +$2,630 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%68W / 55L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days+$358
14 days+$2,397
30 days+$2,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$2,318
other 21% +$113
world 1% −$54
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 52% -3.3%
≤30d 113 -1.8% -11.1% 56% 52% +17.2%
≤90d 123 -2.9% -12.1% 55% 50% +16.2%
all 123 -2.9% -12.1% 55% 50% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 50% +16.2%
10% -20.5% 49% +5.0%
15% -28.2% 42% -5.1%
20% -35.2% 33% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$36 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses68 / 55
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage78d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$29 +72%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $199 +$83 +41%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $277 −$273 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $30 −$22 -71%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$75 +106%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$14 +53%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 +$27 +89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$19 +38%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $101 +$44 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $81 −$40 -49%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $50 +$23 +45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $99 +$47 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$37 +74%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $70 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $282 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $199 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $23 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $10 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $30 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $21 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $45 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records