Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc6cd…f8a1
weather · 1059 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$609 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$141 · open −$111
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$220
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses219 / 527
Open positions59
Markets (closed)746 / 1059
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 59 History 746 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$185
14 days+$403
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 70¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 78¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 54¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 45¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$24 +1139%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +243%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$2 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +660%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $22 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $13 −$6 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$16 +747%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$34 +537%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$21 +1974%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% −$61
world 16% +$94
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 45¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $26 35m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 +14.4% +3.5% 35% 34% +5.7%
≤30d 746 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 29% -7.2%
≤90d 746 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 29% -7.2%
all 746 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 29% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 29% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 27% -16.0%
15% -22.5% 27% -24.1%
20% -30.1% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.64 · official $219.65 (match) · 1400 history records