Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6cf…4228 sports 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,211 (+29%) realized +$1,214 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 51L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$998
14 days+$1,278
30 days+$1,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$622
other 38% +$750
crypto 1% −$62
world 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +17.6% +6.4% 38% 38% +16.7%
≤30d 89 +31.1% +18.6% 43% 43% +21.7%
≤90d 89 +31.1% +18.6% 43% 43% +21.7%
all 89 +31.1% +18.6% 43% 43% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.6% 43% +21.7%
10% +7.3% 43% +10.1%
15% -3.1% 42% -0.5%
20% -12.6% 37% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$35 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$1,214
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 51
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage10d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 46¢ 46¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $132 +$128 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$243 +238%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$161 +158%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $183 −$180 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $202 +$126 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $49 +$551 +1116%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $71 +$147 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$344 +1116%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $71 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $193 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $132 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $183 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 14h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 23h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $41 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $202 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 34h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 34h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0 BUY 27¢ $131 35h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 36h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 44h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $71 44h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.71 · official $396.71 (match) · 197 history records