Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6d4…3e55 crypto 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+2%) realized +$170 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%155W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$315
14 days+$270
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$114
other 8% −$79
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +15.7% +4.7% 74% 72% +6.6%
≤30d 59 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 68% +3.9%
≤90d 267 -3.1% -12.4% 58% 51% -7.9%
all 267 -3.1% -12.4% 58% 51% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 51% -7.9%
10% -20.8% 37% -16.7%
15% -28.4% 25% -24.8%
20% -35.4% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses155 / 112
Open positions4
Markets (closed)267 / 271
History coverage85d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $301 $230 −$71 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $71 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $117 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$19 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$22 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $74 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $58 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$27 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.85 · official $441.85 (match) · 1570 history records