Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6d5…5559 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
other 20% −$6
politics 19% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% −$2
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -1.6% -10.9% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 168 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 151
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage167d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 18 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $332 −$2 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $122 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $380 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 14d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $42 25d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $43 26d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 88¢ $43 34d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $45 34d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 90¢ $40 92d
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 91¢ $40 92d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $47 92d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $47 92d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $45 92d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $45 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $40 93d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 93d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 93d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $35 93d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $35 93d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 93d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 94d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $46 94d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $42 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $42 94d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 94d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 624 history records