Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6d7…0278 crypto 18 markets active 17h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,762 (-64%) realized −$2,726 · open −$1,036
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$3,710
crypto 18% +$205
finance 2% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 17 -34.6% -40.8% 41% 35% -70.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 35% -70.1%
10% -46.5% 29% -72.9%
15% -51.7% 24% -75.5%
20% -56.4% 18% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$311 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$951
Realized−$2,726
Unrealized−$1,036
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage97d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,987 $951 −$1,036 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 02 $1,514 −$1,514 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 10 $28 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 10 $200 +$333 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,661 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $260 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $147 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $500 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $500 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,514 44d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $13 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $113 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $28 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $164 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $13 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $136 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $533 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $200 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $100 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $107 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $100 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $90 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.86 · official $950.86 (match) · 33 history records