Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6d8…b90d weather 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$647 (+4%) realized +$578 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%173W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day252.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -49.2% -54.1% 33% 21% -22.2%
≤30d 440 -37.0% -43.0% 39% 24% -17.6%
≤90d 440 -37.0% -43.0% 39% 24% -17.6%
all 440 -37.0% -43.0% 39% 24% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.0% 24% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.4% 17% -25.4%
15% -53.4% 12% -32.7%
20% -58.0% 7% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$578
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses173 / 267
Open positions18
Markets (closed)440 / 302
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day252.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 48¢ 100¢ $74 $156 +$82 (+110%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $76 $81 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $73 $79 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 85¢ 100¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 50¢ 78¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 79¢ 98¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 58¢ 97¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $9 $13 +$5 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+137%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 84¢ 96¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 67¢ 65¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 50¢ 26¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? No 58¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 49¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 40¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? No 59¢ 1¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? No 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 236 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24? Jun 17 $16 −$36 -223%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22? Jun 17 $14 −$18 -135%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 −$10 -1522%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23? Jun 17 $17 −$92 -544%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 24? Jun 17 $59 −$96 -162%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? Jun 17 $5 −$18 -351%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 17 $28 −$29 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 27? Jun 17 $29 −$35 -122%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16? Jun 17 $12 −$15 -128%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 6? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 29? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 10? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 27? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 17 $36 −$77 -214%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 10? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25? Jun 17 $30 −$44 -148%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13? Jun 17 $16 −$18 -117%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? Jun 17 $14 −$17 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -138%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28? Jun 17 $3 −$15 -501%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 38¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 38¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 33¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 40¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 51¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.13 · official $528.13 (match) · 3500 history records