Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc6dc…5b5d crypto 1330 markets active 10h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$17 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%662W / 602L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$7
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$11
weather 23% +$14
other 15% +$8
sports 8% +$3
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +101.1% +82.0% 55% 55% +85.5%
≤30d 546 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 46% -8.6%
≤90d 1098 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 49% -7.9%
all 1264 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 49% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 46% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 44% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 42% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses662 / 602
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1264 / 1330
History coverage322d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 23? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$4 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +573%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +247%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.44 · official $17.45 (match) · 2078 history records