Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6dc…58d5 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-6%) realized −$130 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%96W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$23
14 days−$112
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$136
other 7% +$16
politics 1% −$10
crypto 1% +$9
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +16.5% +5.4% 67% 67% -3.4%
≤30d 186 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 51% -15.1%
≤90d 186 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 51% -15.1%
all 186 -8.4% -17.2% 52% 51% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 51% -15.1%
10% -25.1% 48% -23.2%
15% -32.3% 44% -30.6%
20% -39.0% 34% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses96 / 90
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)186 / 189
History coverage27d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 76¢ 90¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 73¢ 71¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $10 +$7 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $15 +$5 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $26 +$15 +56%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 Jun 26 $23 +$11 +47%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $12 +$8 +67%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $10 +$3 +32%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina Jun 26 $10 −$3 -30%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 24 $11 +$8 +67%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $7 +$13 +188%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$14 +140%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $11 +$6 +54%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -12%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 +$6 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $9 +$8 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$7 +59%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $16 20m
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $17 51m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $20 52m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 76¢ $15 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $41 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $16 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $10 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 73¢ $10 14h
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Maria 37¢ $10 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 40¢ $18 18h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 41¢ $20 19h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 32¢ $10 20h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 63¢ $20 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 41h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 68¢ $10 41h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY BUY DNS 65¢ $12 41h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY BUY DNS 65¢ $1 41h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 BUY KRX 64¢ $10 42h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs C9 BUY KRX 70¢ $13 42h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 75¢ $10 43h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 60¢ $12 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 71¢ $10 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 69¢ $10 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $11 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 60¢ $2 4d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 60¢ $3 4d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 60¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.95 · official $28.95 (match) · 366 history records