Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc6dd…4b9f
world · 45 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$137,855 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$92,978 · open +$17,100
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$233,878
Realized+$92,978
Unrealized+$17,100
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses29 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage19d
Avg bet$37,803
Trades / day176.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 27 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,978
7 days+$46,281
14 days+$59,431
30 days+$92,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 84¢ $64,877 $77,553 +$12,676 (+20%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $47,391 $50,737 +$3,346 (+7%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $28,502 $31,600 +$3,098 (+11%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 98¢ 99¢ $20,178 $20,288 +$111 (+1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $9,787 $9,998 +$211 (+2%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $8,575 $8,921 +$346 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 76¢ 60¢ $11,132 $8,736 −$2,397 (-22%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $6,207 $6,786 +$579 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 39¢ 96¢ $1,453 $3,630 +$2,177 (+150%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $3,266 $3,346 +$81 (+2%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? No 87¢ 87¢ $2,396 $2,392 −$4 (-0%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $2,362 $2,357 −$5 (-0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? No 81¢ 65¢ $2,799 $2,252 −$547 (-20%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 91¢ $1,099 $1,150 +$51 (+5%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1,005 $1,103 +$98 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 99¢ 95¢ $1,096 $1,047 −$49 (-4%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 74¢ 82¢ $716 $793 +$77 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 9¢ $3,380 $553 −$2,827 (-84%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 57¢ 89¢ $207 $321 +$114 (+55%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $124 $164 +$40 (+32%)
Will JUUL relaunch Mango flavor by 2027? No 89¢ 57¢ $104 $68 −$37 (-35%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $50 $9 −$40 (-81%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $650 −$650 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,423 −$3,640 -256%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,834 −$7,428 -405%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $10,382 +$42 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2,393 +$7 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $78,244 +$7,991 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $2,394 +$701 +29%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $632 +$25 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $246 +$19 +8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $323 +$6 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,631 +$21,911 +1344%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3,366 +$920 +27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $675 +$336 +50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $54,995 +$819 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,359 +$1,455 +107%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $24,500 +$5,500 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6,200 +$4,682 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $194,116 +$13,476 +7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $37,492 +$105 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $2,405 +$5 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $551,619 +$8,596 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $17,800 +$1,499 +8%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $6,133 +$2,259 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $32,427 +$796 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $58,415 +$5,919 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $22,493 −$503 -2%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $1,799 +$39 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $2,542 −$103 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $21,770 +$57 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $177,379 +$19,204 +11%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? May 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $48 +$952 +1983%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,198 +$4,462 +372%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $220 +$7 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $8,178 +$3,905 +48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $190 −$190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$60,692
crypto 32% +$8,596
politics 22% +$19,842
other 9% +$30,703
tech 2% +$1,963
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $242 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,780 10h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $17 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $77 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $600 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $600 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $206 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $160 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 13h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $192 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,411 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $453 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $880 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $250 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +69.4% +53.3% 85% 35% +2.0%
≤30d 36 +99.0% +80.0% 81% 33% -2.5%
≤90d 36 +99.0% +80.0% 81% 33% -2.5%
all 36 +99.0% +80.0% 81% 33% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover176.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.0% 33% -2.5%
10% +62.8% 31% -11.8%
15% ← realistic here +47.1% 22% -20.4%
20% +32.7% 14% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233,878.36 · official $233,874.14 (match) · 3500 history records