trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $77 | +$2 | +2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 11 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 11 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 11 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 11 | $24 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? | Apr 11 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana reach $190 in April? | Apr 11 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 09 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 09 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? | Apr 09 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 08 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? | Apr 07 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 07 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 05 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 04 | $3 | +$1 | +40% |
| Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? | Apr 04 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 03 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? | Apr 03 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Mar 30 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 28 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 64% | 4% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 4% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 4% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 4% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 0% | -32.8% |