Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6df…a921 crypto 127 markets active 3d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate57%72W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$2
economics 29% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 44% -12.6%
≤30d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 25% -9.8%
≤90d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 25% -9.8%
all 127 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 25% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 25% -9.8%
10% -17.5% 17% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 9% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses72 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage143d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$12 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$5 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 726 history records