Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc6e2…de7f other 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$838 (-65%) realized −$838 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$799
14 days−$799
30 days−$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$507
sports 23% −$300
tech 20% +$9
world 8% −$15
crypto 3% −$40
weather 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -51.6% -56.2% 25% 0% -80.3%
≤30d 8 -34.5% -40.8% 38% 12% -69.3%
≤90d 8 -34.5% -40.8% 38% 12% -69.3%
all 8 -34.5% -40.8% 38% 12% -69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 12% -69.3%
10% -46.4% 12% -72.2%
15% -51.6% 12% -74.9%
20% -56.4% 0% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$172 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage65d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 −$7 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $160 +$8 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $92 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $106 −$15 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? May 28 $19 +$8 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records