Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6e5…e61e other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,355 (-1%) realized −$2,356 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,261per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$40
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$265
politics 37% −$90
sports 16% −$2,538
culture 5% −$10
economics 2% −$5
world 1% −$12
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +12.2% +1.5% 13% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 66 -5.2% -14.2% 11% 6% -12.3%
all 149 +6.5% -3.7% 30% 13% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 13% -10.7%
10% -12.9% 13% -19.2%
15% -21.3% 13% -27.0%
20% -29.0% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,677) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$35 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$2,356
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,261
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $369 $370 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,157 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $4,026 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $982 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,566 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,003 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $3,330 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,107 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,599 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,151 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $70 +$68 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $65 +$63 +97%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,162 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $6,727 −$7 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $538 +$2 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,995 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,916 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $57 +$107 +188%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,279 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $62 +$49 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $510 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $3,674 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $3,118 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $3,397 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,908 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2,378 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2,338 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $5,336 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $2,233 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $361 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $362 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 29h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $931 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $933 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $938 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $939 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,070 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,080 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,081 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $369 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,202 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,203 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,072 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,253 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.96 · official $369.96 (match) · 500 history records