Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6e5…89fb other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (494 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day494.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$4
politics 18% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 10% -9.6%
all 10 +1.4% -8.3% 10% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover494.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
20.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day494.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $1,454 $0 -0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $6,192 −$4 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $285 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $21 2m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $21 2m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 98¢ $19 11m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $19 24m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $19 24m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $19 24m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $19 26m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $19 29m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $19 55m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 55m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 56m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $20 58m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 58m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.87 · official $40.87 (match) · 494 history records