Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6e6…2093 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$239 (+13%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$103
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$174
other 37% +$240
crypto 11% −$203
world 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.8% -51.0% 29% 29% -58.7%
≤30d 23 -9.3% -17.9% 39% 39% +3.8%
≤90d 23 -9.3% -17.9% 39% 39% +3.8%
all 23 -9.3% -17.9% 39% 39% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 39% +3.8%
10% -25.8% 35% -6.1%
15% -33.0% 35% -15.2%
20% -39.5% 30% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$51 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$21 -84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$14 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$18 +117%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $95 +$21 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 −$21 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$63 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$38 +107%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$35 -36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$19 -22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $206 −$203 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$92 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $149 +$391 +262%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $146 +$153 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $13 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $22 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $33 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $15 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $54 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $94 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $152 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $7 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $62 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $62 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $97 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records