Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc6ea…6ebb other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$483 (-28%) realized −$405 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$364
7 days−$277
14 days−$446
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$455
sports 35% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.2% -35.1% 29% 29% -43.8%
≤30d 9 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 22% -54.3%
≤90d 9 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 22% -54.3%
all 9 -44.2% -49.5% 22% 22% -54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 22% -54.3%
10% -54.3% 22% -58.7%
15% -58.8% 22% -62.6%
20% -62.8% 22% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$103 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$405
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $294 $271 −$23 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $224 $223 −$1 (-0%)
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $28 $64 +$36 (+127%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 19¢ 17¢ $56 $49 −$7 (-12%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $112 $28 −$84 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $59 −$56 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 −$56 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $119 −$113 -95%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $237 −$225 -95%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 +$86 +145%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $108 −$103 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $120 +$190 +158%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $119 −$112 -95%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 −$56 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $59 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $59 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $237 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $59 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $119 19h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $237 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $59 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $311 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $108 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $120 4d
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 9d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $59 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $118 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.42 · official $635.42 (match) · 26 history records