Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6ed…e720 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$49 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%23W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$39
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$10
other 30% −$39
politics 16% −$5
tech 14% −$25
economics 3% −$8
finance 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$3
sports 1% −$2
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.7% -19.2% 0% 0% -21.9%
≤30d 50 -11.2% -19.6% 18% 6% -16.0%
≤90d 97 -8.7% -17.4% 22% 4% -11.3%
all 99 -8.5% -17.2% 23% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 4% -11.3%
10% -25.1% 3% -19.8%
15% -32.3% 3% -27.6%
20% -39.0% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses23 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)99 / 105
History coverage150d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 20 $57 −$8 -14%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Jun 19 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Netherlands's Starting 11 include a player not listed above? Jun 13 $0 $0 +13%
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 07 $17 −$5 -32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $102 −$9 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 $0 +5%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in June? Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 05 $16 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral electio Jun 05 $20 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$2 -11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? May 31 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? May 31 $7 $0 -3%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -7%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $67 $0 +0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be less than 150k? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 27 $60 −$21 -35%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 27 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May? May 27 $54 −$2 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 27 $11 +$16 +139%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 22 $13 −$1 -11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 22 $10 −$1 -13%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 22 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 1h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No $3 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No $3 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 10¢ $5 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 11¢ $6 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 11¢ $0 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 11¢ $0 10h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 11h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 11h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 13h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 13h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 27h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 27h
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 28h
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 28h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 28h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 28h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 28h
Will Netherlands's Starting 11 include a player not listed above? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 21¢ $4 7d
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 74¢ $15 7d
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 21¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.61 · official $408.61 (match) · 344 history records