Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6ee…6917 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$445 (+16%) realized +$453 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%78W / 55L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days+$218
14 days+$422
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$411
other 24% −$3
weather 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 49% -0.2%
≤30d 133 +14.4% +3.5% 59% 58% +6.0%
≤90d 133 +14.4% +3.5% 59% 58% +6.0%
all 133 +14.4% +3.5% 59% 58% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 58% +6.0%
10% -6.4% 56% -4.1%
15% -15.5% 56% -13.4%
20% -23.8% 44% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses78 / 55
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)133 / 141
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 74¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Over 55¢ 55¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Over 50¢ 40¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$5 +50%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $54 +$59 +109%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 28 $20 +$15 +73%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 +$18 +90%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $51 +$22 +43%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$42 +206%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $91 +$59 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $29 −$28 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $45 +$22 +49%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $37 +$63 +172%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $61 +$72 +119%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 +$7 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$30 +60%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $75 −$74 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Éderson: 1+ shots Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA W Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $101 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 40¢ $9 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $10 20h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 20h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $10 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $10 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 20h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 20h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 20h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 20h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 20h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $20 20h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $20 20h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 20h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.88 · official $285.89 (match) · 322 history records