Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6f2…bf21 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 24% −$24
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$4
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$3
economics 5% −$4
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage137d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $819 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $295 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $340 −$5 -2%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $259 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $433 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $394 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $315 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $382 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $435 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $224 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $415 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $233 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 7h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 10h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 10h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 12h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 20h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 22h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 26h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 31h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 46h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 47h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1342 history records