Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc6f5…870b weather 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-1%) realized −$247 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%71W / 10L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$116
14 days+$113
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 57 -2.5% -11.8% 89% 5% -11.6%
≤90d 81 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 4% -11.4%
all 81 -4.3% -13.4% 88% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 4% -11.4%
10% -21.7% 2% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 1% -27.6%
20% -36.2% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$117 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses71 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage45d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 22? No 91¢ 88¢ $222 $215 −$7 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 81¢ 74¢ $228 $209 −$20 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $431 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 21 $417 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $396 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $396 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 18 $382 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $361 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $341 +$20 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $328 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $311 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $305 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $295 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 11 $381 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $372 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $343 +$28 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $320 +$23 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 07 $296 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 07 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 06 $19 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $913 −$894 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 5? Jun 06 $295 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 06 $887 +$23 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $214 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 05 $281 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $868 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $185 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $509 +$36 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 04 $573 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $562 +$34 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 02 $152 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 02 $428 +$22 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $138 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 31? Jun 01 $416 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$32 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $334 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 30? May 31 $147 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $28 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $325 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $106 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 30 $134 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $415 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 29 $492 +$57 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $479 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $82 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 27 $129 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 26? May 27 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? May 26 $99 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 91¢ $224 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $232 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $431 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $417 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $396 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $397 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $396 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 96¢ $382 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $361 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 94¢ $341 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $328 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $311 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $305 10d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $98 10d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 96¢ $295 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $381 12d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $372 13d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 92¢ $343 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $320 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $301 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $17 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 57¢ $17 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 60¢ $19 15d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? SELL No 2¢ $19 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $296 16d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 96¢ $913 16d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June BUY No 97¢ $225 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 94¢ $214 17d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June BUY No 97¢ $662 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.78 · official $423.78 (match) · 189 history records