Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C6 0xc6ff…f8e3 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,154 (+8%) realized +$524 · open +$630

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,295per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$3,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-15.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-6.7%	-15.6%	56%	56%	-0.9%
≤30d	9	-6.7%	-15.6%	56%	56%	-0.9%
≤90d	9	-6.7%	-15.6%	56%	56%	-0.9%
all	9	-6.7%	-15.6%	56%	56%	-0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.6%	56%	-0.9%
10%	-23.7%	22%	-10.4%
15%	-31.1%	22%	-19.1%
20%	-37.8%	11%	-27.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$570 vs −$446 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$3,630

Realized+$524

Unrealized+$630

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,295

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$2,000	$2,045	+$45 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	59¢	94¢	$1,000	$1,585	+$585 (+58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,015	−$254	-25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,004	+$146	+14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,025	+$1,423	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2,009	+$344	+17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$1,615	+$738	+46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$512	−$500	-98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,028	−$1,000	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,008	−$31	-3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$998	+$198	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1,012	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2,020	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$761	13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,015	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	87¢	$1,004	17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2,025	20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	85¢	$2,009	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,615	38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	22¢	$512	39h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1,028	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	71¢	$978	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$1,008	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	83¢	$998	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,630.20 · official $3,630.20 (match) · 19 history records