Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C7 0xc701…33c1 other 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,418 (+3%) realized +$2,653 · open −$235
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate51%46W / 44L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$922per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$312est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$2,422
14 days−$1,742
30 days+$8,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$5,082
sports 23% +$11,414
crypto 6% −$3,093
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +35.8% +22.9% 44% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 46 +23.4% +11.6% 46% 43% +11.4%
≤90d 86 +15.3% +4.3% 50% 38% -7.6%
all 90 +16.7% +5.6% 51% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 40% -5.3%
10% -4.5% 34% -14.3%
15% -13.7% 30% -22.6%
20% -22.2% 23% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$816) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$620 vs −$611 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$2,365
Realized+$2,653
Unrealized−$235
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses46 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$312
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage167d
Avg bet$922
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,600 $1,583 −$17 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $782 −$218 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,027 +$530 +13%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,623 −$934 -58%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $501 +$54 +11%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,011 +$533 +53%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $1,508 +$317 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,000 +$6 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 +$741 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $773 −$760 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 +$28 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $1,220 +$1,447 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $740 −$740 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $595 −$583 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$564 +550%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $657 +$343 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $809 −$800 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $309 +$191 +62%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$1,897 +1845%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $215 −$210 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $387 −$380 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $587 −$580 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $295 +$205 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,701 −$2,688 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $505 +$264 +52%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $532 +$168 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$20 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $453 +$124 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $254 −$250 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,366 −$1,314 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3,846 +$2,548 +66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,494 +$10,679 +238%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,605 −$1,570 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $710 +$636 +90%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $605 +$228 +38%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $1,218 −$1,200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,625 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,010 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $610 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $656 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,012 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,537 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $501 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $42 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $100 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $26 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $338 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,365.25 · official $2,365.25 (match) · 450 history records