Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc703…4361 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$792 (+16%) realized +$767 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$617
14 days+$611
30 days+$774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$210
crypto 23% −$14
sports 13% +$595
tech 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -13.4% -21.7% 48% 40% +4.3%
≤30d 87 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 43% +6.2%
≤90d 88 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 42% +5.3%
all 88 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 42% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 42% +5.3%
10% -27.3% 34% -4.8%
15% -34.3% 28% -14.0%
20% -40.8% 25% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$767
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage32d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $268 $275 +$7 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $116 $133 +$17 (+15%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$77 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +108%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 −$94 -82%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +156%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $64 +$136 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $275 +$415 +151%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$29 +19%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 −$19 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$13 +240%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $279 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.70 · official $456.98 (match) · 292 history records