Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc704…2e31 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$4
finance 32% +$17
tech 27% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +1.2% -8.5% 90% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 0% -9.0%
all 19 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×135.39 per $1 lost it wins $135.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$3,164
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage75d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $758 $760 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $699 $697 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $688 $688 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $460 $459 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $275 $280 +$5 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $271 $280 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 12 $13 +$1 +10%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $158 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 12 $314 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 12 $364 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 12 $385 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 12 $407 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $416 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $505 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 12 $580 +$5 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 11 $159 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 11 $174 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 11 $211 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $276 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 11 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 11 $334 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 11 $409 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 11 $592 +$9 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $662 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $179 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $238 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $238 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $212 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $97 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $699 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $688 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $460 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $758 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $407 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $259 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $321 39d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $385 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 91¢ $13 39d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $416 39d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $158 39d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $314 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $364 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $505 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $409 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $358 61d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $332 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $174 74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $211 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $334 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $276 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $299 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $234 74d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,163.50 · official $3,163.50 (match) · 49 history records