Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc705…b71a other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 230L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 22% −$24
politics 10% −$8
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% +$2
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage136d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $347 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $615 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $553 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $330 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $324 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $760 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $357 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $938 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $622 −$2 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $486 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $300 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $304 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $155 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $325 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $63 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 5h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 10h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 20h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 22h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 25h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 26h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 28h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 29h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 31h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 33h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 36h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 38h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 45h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 46h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.42 · official $62.42 (match) · 1374 history records