Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C7 0xc706…db30 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%42W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$5
crypto 11% +$3
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses42 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage524d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $46 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 03 $46 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $5,456 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Jackson be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 11 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 122d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 122d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 180d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $46 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $16 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $35 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 99¢ $15 301d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $46 302d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 332d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 362d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 365d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.83 · official $65.83 (match) · 114 history records