Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C7 0xc70a…b4f3 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$839 (-6%) realized −$827 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$1,988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$1,651
14 days−$1,496
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$2,190
sports 11% +$647
crypto 2% +$140
world 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.0% -19.5% 59% 59% -23.1%
≤30d 32 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -21.5%
≤90d 32 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -21.5%
all 32 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 56% -21.5%
10% -15.2% 53% -29.0%
15% -23.4% 41% -35.8%
20% -30.9% 25% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$299 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,988
Realized−$827
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage11d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,988 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$66 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $263 +$128 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $264 −$264 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $211 +$140 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $262 +$105 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $263 +$168 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $263 +$147 +56%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $209 +$50 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $211 +$197 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $526 +$268 +51%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $524 +$143 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $738 −$517 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,049 +$360 +34%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $841 +$456 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,188 −$2,527 -60%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$24 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$14 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$44 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$107 +502%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$227 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $522 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,044 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $522 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $157 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $315 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $263 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $262 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $211 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $264 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $263 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $263 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $209 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $211 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $526 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $524 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $221 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $105 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $633 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,049 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $841 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,661 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4,188 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $78 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,988.37 · official $1,988.37 (match) · 68 history records