Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc70b…fcfb world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7
other 17% +$8
politics 17% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 30% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 30% 10% -8.5%
all 37 +6.0% -4.1% 22% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 5% -8.5%
10% -13.3% 5% -17.3%
15% -21.7% 5% -25.3%
20% -29.4% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.4 per $1 lost it wins $5.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage269d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $157 +$6 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $102 −$3 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $9 +$4 +40%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 02 $4 +$8 +182%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Sep 30 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $52 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $27 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $52 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.50 · official $52.50 (match) · 116 history records