Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc714…5b59 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 60L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$30
other 32% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 7% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 77 -5.8% -14.8% 22% 1% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 1% -6.0%
10% -22.9% 1% -15.0%
15% -30.4% 1% -23.2%
20% -37.2% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×291.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×95.39 per $1 lost it wins $95.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage563d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Dec 29 $62 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Oct 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? Oct 24 $60 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Oct 22 $61 +$30 +49%
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? Oct 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? Oct 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 September 29-October 5? Oct 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on September 25? Sep 30 $31 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? Sep 25 $30 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 10 $0 $0 -29%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Feb 10 $5 $0 +0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $0 $0 -24%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 29 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 +2%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 +7%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -6%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -8%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -10%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $62 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $62 150d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $62 178d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $62 233d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $61 240d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $60 245d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $60 245d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $60 246d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 246d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 246d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $30 246d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 246d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 246d
Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $31 251d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $31 257d
Will Solana dip to $140 September 29-October 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 267d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 269d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on September 25? BUY No 100¢ $31 274d
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 405d
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 405d
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 500d
Will Biden pardon Diddy? BUY No 100¢ $5 527d
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 543d
Southampton wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 543d
Southampton wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 543d
Everton wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 543d
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 543d
West Ham United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $5 543d
Everton wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $5 543d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.88 · official $61.88 (match) · 163 history records