Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc716…d43b politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+8%) realized +$123 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% +$62
world 13% +$9
sports 10% +$8
other 9% +$27
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +30.9% +18.4% 100% 100% +18.4%
≤90d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 60% 20% -1.3%
all 11 +7.4% -2.9% 64% 18% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 18% -1.8%
10% -12.2% 18% -11.2%
15% -20.6% 9% -19.8%
20% -28.4% 9% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage149d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 84¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $95 +$29 +31%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 20 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $186 −$14 -8%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $138 −$18 -13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $115 +$90 +78%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $160 +$8 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 31 $120 +$8 +6%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $35 −$6 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 10 $81 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 46¢ $92 7d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $110 19d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 52¢ $124 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 46¢ $187 30d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $28 30d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $143 30d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $110 35d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $30 35d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 35d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $31 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 35d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 35d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $83 35d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 36¢ $121 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $83 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $82 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $74 47d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 39¢ $138 47d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $205 47d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $115 71d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 40¢ $168 71d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $160 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $128 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $120 85d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 85d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.66 · official $267.66 (match) · 146 history records