Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc718…0a64 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+4%) realized +$212 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$539
14 days+$384
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$410
other 45% +$33
crypto 5% −$30
world 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +27.6% +15.4% 72% 72% +22.7%
≤30d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 55% +3.7%
≤90d 44 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 55% +3.7%
all 44 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 55% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 55% +3.7%
10% -14.8% 55% -6.2%
15% -23.0% 50% -15.3%
20% -30.5% 45% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$46 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$528
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage10d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $140 $150 +$10 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $121 $103 −$18 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $121 $91 −$30 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $119 $84 −$35 (-29%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$68 +111%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $44 +$25 +56%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $55 −$28 -52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 +$48 +47%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $162 +$84 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$120 +118%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$64 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 +$178 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$55 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $81 +$48 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $83 +$77 +92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $96 +$64 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$25 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 +$62 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $66 +$51 +76%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$67 +220%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -15%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 +$57 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 −$19 -65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 +$14 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$22 +108%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $41 +$34 +83%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $81 +$27 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 9m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 12m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $31 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 34¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 36¢ $55 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $102 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 47¢ $61 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $11 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 44¢ $41 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $61 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $60 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $122 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $81 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $121 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $83 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $31 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $83 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $96 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $95 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $81 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $81 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.15 · official $528.16 (match) · 102 history records