Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc71e…accc world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$3
sports 39% −$12
other 8% −$1
finance 2% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.0% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 34% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 37 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 5% -9.4%
all 47 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage490d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $6 $0 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $80 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $175 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $14 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $29 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 +$2 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $12 +$3 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $249 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $227 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $226 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Onta Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
BYU vs. Arizona State Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
St. Bonaventure vs. St. Joseph's Feb 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $14 $0 -2%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Canada win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $27 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records