Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc721…5309 crypto 801 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$559 (-3%) realized −$611 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%272W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$237
30 days−$2,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,216
other 5% −$316
sports 3% +$399
weather 1% −$49
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.0% -23.1% 33% 33% -11.0%
≤30d 759 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 31% -22.3%
≤90d 759 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 31% -22.3%
all 798 -19.6% -27.3% 34% 32% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -22.5%
10% -34.2% 29% -29.9%
15% -40.6% 24% -36.7%
20% -46.4% 22% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses272 / 526
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)798 / 801
History coverage127d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $85 $176 +$91 (+107%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$93 +365%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 +$15 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $66 +$55 +82%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $26 +$6 +23%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 +$19 +126%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $87 −$85 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$45 -44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$251 +246%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$186 +303%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$13 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $225 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $86 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 8h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $48 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 47h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 47h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $66 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.53 · official $176.53 (match) · 1657 history records