Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc72b…5b5e crypto 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$262 (-5%) realized −$1,162 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate35%354W / 669L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day76.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$894
14 days−$935
30 days−$1,184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$264
sports 8% −$62
world 2% +$18
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 500 -77.0% -79.2% 7% 6% -66.7%
≤30d 686 -61.3% -65.0% 20% 12% -38.3%
≤90d 1023 -42.4% -47.9% 35% 21% -25.4%
all 1023 -42.4% -47.9% 35% 21% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.9% 21% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -52.9% 13% -32.5%
15% -57.4% 8% -39.0%
20% -61.6% 5% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,162
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses354 / 669
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1023 / 641
History coverage41d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day76.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1023 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 96¢ 55¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 6¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-87%)
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 23? Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$4 -1449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$15 -189%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -104%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $4 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $5 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $51 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $58 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.10 · official $10.10 (match) · 3500 history records