Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc72b…c108 crypto 637 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,574 (-5%) realized −$14,574 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%371W / 266L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,223
7 days−$319
14 days−$319
30 days−$1,195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$14,315
sports 4% −$1,242
other 1% −$1,147
weather 1% −$136
world 0% −$1,107
finance 0% −$369
politics 0% −$272
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.8% -2.5% 30% 30% -20.1%
≤30d 19 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 32% -28.0%
≤90d 243 -18.3% -26.1% 52% 49% -22.6%
all 637 -13.8% -22.0% 58% 45% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 45% -15.3%
10% -29.5% 30% -23.4%
15% -36.3% 19% -30.8%
20% -42.6% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$247 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses371 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)637 / 637
History coverage128d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 637 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $834 −$261 -31%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $308 −$71 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$140 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $365 −$350 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $432 −$130 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$119 +58%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $154 +$747 +486%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $466 −$450 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 02 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $413 +$107 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $431 +$188 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $519 +$475 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 16 $563 −$550 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 16 $359 +$207 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 16 $305 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $310 −$300 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $520 −$500 -96%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $435 +$93 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $228 −$220 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $206 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $313 +$254 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 15 $607 +$717 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 15 $278 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 15 $206 +$99 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $411 +$86 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 15 $516 +$311 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $310 +$82 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $206 +$139 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 15 $310 +$198 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 15 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $311 +$309 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 15 $309 +$213 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $331 −$322 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $667 +$379 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 15 $207 +$139 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $516 +$191 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $259 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $313 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 58m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $237 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $57 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $284 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2562 history records