Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc72d…0d45 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$37 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$93
other 18% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 43% -6.8%
≤30d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 43% -6.8%
≤90d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 43% -6.8%
all 7 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 43% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 43% -6.8%
10% -14.9% 43% -15.8%
15% -23.1% 43% -23.9%
20% -30.6% 29% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$48 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 59¢ 44¢ $57 $42 −$15 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $70 +$83 +119%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $99 −$98 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $86 −$85 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $70 −$2 -4%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $25 −$6 -25%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $137 +$57 +42%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $70 +$68 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 59¢ $58 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $70 14h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $99 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $86 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $67 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $18 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $70 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $25 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $137 42h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.03 · official $42.03 (match) · 13 history records